The NFL season starts in just over 24 hours when the New York Giants start their title defense at home v. the Dallas Cowboys. In honor of this, I made you all wait to find out where I'd put the reigning champs and the rest of the top teams of the NFC in my breakdown. Well now the wait is over. The NFC has some scary good football teams, and it was hard to choose who'd come out on top. But just like the previous three breakdown articles, I based my predictions off the schedule and how easy or tough it was for each team. I also took into account how good of an offseason each team had. The results came out as followed.
1. New York Giants 15-1 (2011: 9-7, Super Bowl Champions)
The Giants were not strong regular season teams in their last two Super Bowl runs. They had to scratch and claw to get into the playoffs, and then once their they made their run. This year I think they'll cruise into the playoffs much like the Packers did last season a year after their Super Bowl run. The problem with the Pack last year was that they got too comfortable towards the end of the season and ended up getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Giants. The Giants will not have this problem though because they are fiery just like their head coach. Sure they lost Brandon Jacobs, Mario Manningham, and Jake Ballard, but they also replaced all of them. Sure they have the hardest schedule in the NFL, but the team is fearless and has the one thing every team needs nowadays, an insane pass rush. The NFL is a passing league, meaning that all the best teams have elite quarterbacks. Well the G-men aren't afraid of them; you saw what they did to Rodgers in Brady. They also have Eli Manning, arguably the most clutch quarterback in the NFL. I have them losing to one team this season, and that's in Philadelphia. The Eagles have multiple options on offense and an amazing defense that won't make the mistakes they did last season. Thrown in the fact that the Eagles are home and the Giants will have their hands full. Must watch games include: Week 1 v. Dallas; Week 4 at Philadelphia; Week 6 at San Francisco; Week 8 at Dallas; Week 9 v. Pittsburgh; Week 12 v. Green Bay; Week 14 v. New Orleans; Week 15 at Atlanta; Week 16 at Baltimore; and Week 17 v. Philadelphia.
2. Green Bay Packers 14-2 (2011: 15-1, lost in Divisional Round)
The Packers were unstoppable last season. Then they let their foot off the gas at the end of the season and it ended up costing them in the postseason. They're poor defense didn't much either, but they made the draft their mission to get better on defense, taking a defensive player with their first six picks. They have the second easiest schedule. This year their schedule is much more balanced and so there's no room to slack. They also signed Cedric Benson in the offseason, who may help legitimize their running game. Rodgers has the same receivers so he should be spot on as usual, especially with legendary center, Jeff Saturday, snapping him the ball. Like the Giants, I have the Pack stumbling on the road. I have them losing against the Giants and Bears. Aaron Rodgers and the passing game are the main reason Green Bay win football games, make him uncomfortable and things could get rough. That's what the Giants will do in front of their home fans in New Jersey. The Bears also have a very good defense, but it's their offense that will do the Packers in. Cutler, Forte, and Marshall will just be too much for the Pack D. Must watch games include: Week 1 v. San Francisco; Week 2 v. Chicago; Week 4 v. New Orleans; Week 6 at Houston; Week 11 at Detroit; Week 12 at the Giants; Week 14 v. Detroit; and Week 15 at Chicago.
3. New Orleans 14-2 (2011: 13-3, lost in Divisional Round)
The Saints had a very good year last season. They just ran into a Niners team on a mission at the wrong time. This year Sean Payton will be watching games from his couch and interim coach Joe Vitt will be doing the same for the first six games. Some of the defense involved with the bounties are suspended as well. But the Saints replaced those that were suspended, and Drew Brees and their powerful offense is still in tact minus Robert Meachem. Oh well, they don't need him anyways as there's already a logjam of targets for Brees. They also let Tracy Porter leave the defense, but they had the much younger Patrick Robinson ready to take his place. New Orleans have positioned themselves perfectly to weather the storm they created through the use of bounties in the past. The trend of losing on the road continues though as I have them losing in Green Bay and in New Jersey to the Giants. The Packers out dueled the Saints last season and I don't see a reason why they won't again this year. They go to MetLife Stadium late in the year and the Giants will be in top form and not afraid of Brees or their prolific offense. Must watch games include: Week 4 at Green Bay; Week 5 v. San Diego; Week 8 at Denver; Week 9 v. Philadelphia; Week 10 v. Atlanta; Week 12 v. San Francisco; Week 13 at Atlanta; Week 14 at the Giants; and Week 16 at Dallas.
4. Chicago Bears 13-3 (2011: 8-8)
Last season the Bears literally limped to the finish line with injuries to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. This year they reinforced both positions with veteran backups and traded for Cutler's old pal, Brandon Marshall. This gives Cutler Marshall and Devin Hester to throw to with Earl Bennett a pretty decent option, too. Their run defense and pass rush are very good but they lacked stopping the air attack last season. They did not do any major changes to the secondary though besides adding Kelvin Hayden for depth purposes. Still, their schedule leans towards the easy side (tenth easiest overall), and I see them poised for a big year. One that could actually see them dethrone the Packers in the North. The three games I them losing are away in Green Bay, in San Francisco, and in Detroit. The Pack will exploit the mediocre secondary at home in Green Bay. The Niners defense can shut down the Bears offense and their improved pass attack will prevent the Bears from stacking the box against Frank Gore. The Lions have Stafford and Calvin Johnson to run circles around the Bears secondary. Must watch games include: Week 2 at Green Bay; Week 4 at Dallas; Week 7 v. Detroit; Week 10 v. Houston; Week 11 at San Francisco; Week 15 v. Green Bay; and Week 17 at Detroit.
5. San Francisco 49ers 12-4 (2011: 13-3, lost in Conference Round)
Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers had a magical 2011 season that surpassed all expectations bestowed upon them. The problem is now no one is going to be caught by surprise. The good news is San Fran added Randy Moss and Mario Manningham to help Alex Smith, whose options were limited last season. They also added Brandon Jacobs to help take the load off the aging Frank Gore. Their elite defense remains untouched, and for good reason; the saying goes it ain't broke, don't fix it. San Francisco also has the benefit of the eighth easiest schedule in the league and being part of the easiest division in the NFL. All this adds up to a 12-4 record. Their losses come in Green Bay, v. the Giants, in New Orleans, and in New England. These four teams just have more talent on the offensive side of the ball. San Fran's defense is good, but it's not unstoppable. Must watch games include: Week 1 at Green Bay; Week 2 v. Detroit; Week 6 v. the Giants; Week 11 v. Chicago; Week 12 at New Orleans; and Week 15 at New England.
6. Atlanta Falcons 12-4 (2011: 10-6, lost in Wild Card Round)
The Falcons flopped in the playoffs last season. I don't know if the Giants were too much for them or what, but they were a complete no-show in last year's second season. They elected to boost the offensive line in this year's draft and didn't do much else to the team. Both the offense and defense remain largely the same, which signals that the front office thinks the team just needs to work harder this year. Julio Jones enters his second season in the league and, if he can stay healthy, him and Roddy White will give Matt Ryan quite the dynamic duo to throw to. The Falcons schedule is relatively easy (ninth easiest in the NFL) and they shouldn't have any problems challenging the Saints for the South. Losses will most likely come in New Orleans, v. New Orleans, in Carolina, and v. the Giants. The Saints and Giants I just feel are better teams and the better team usually wins the game. I picked Cam Newton and the Panthers to upset the Falcons at because even with the Panthers most likely finishing with a poor record, I still think they are capable of a signature win and beating the Falcons will be it. Must watch games include: Week 1 at Kansas City; Week 2 v. Denver; Week 3 at San Diego; Week 8 at Philadelphia; Week 9 v. Dallas; Week 10 at New Orleans; Week 13 v. New Orleans; Week 15 v. the Giants; and Week 16 at Detroit.
7. Philadelphia Eagles 11-5 (2011: 8-8)
The Eagles added a lot of talent last offseason, particularly on defense. The problem was there wasn't an offseason for them to gel. This meant that the learning came in actual games, mistakes did happen, and losses did occur as a result. They added more to the defense this season when they traded for DeMeco Ryans and in the form of draft picks, using their first three picks on defenders including starting linebacker Mychal Kendricks. This year there should be no confusion on the defense though as they had a full training camp and preseason to prepare together. Vince Young is out as Michael Vick's backup as they elected to draft a quarterback, Nick Foles, and use him as the backup. While Foles is a cheaper option than a veteran, I think spending the extra money is worth it because the backup is bound to start a few games with Michael Vick being the risk-taker he is on the field. Vick's top target, DeSean Jackson, was finally paid this offseason and the happy Jackson should produce much more this season. The Eagles have a chance to be a very special team but a tough schedule and division will hold them back. Must watch games include: Week 2 v. Baltimore; Week 4 v. the Giants; Week 5 at Pittsburgh; Week 6 v. Detroit; Week 8 v. Atlanta; Week 9 at New Orleans; Week 10 v. Dallas; and Week 17 at the Giants.
8. Detroit Lions 9-7 (2011: 10-6, lost in Wild Card Round)
Luck propelled them into the playoffs during a year they didn't deserve to go to do lack of maturity by some of their young stars, namely Ndamukong Suh. This offseason the immaturity continued with multiple DUIs by the young team. My guess is being on the football field should fix any maturity problems the team has. The real problems occur on the defense and in the run game. The defense was ranked towards the bottom despite having guys like Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks. If the pass rush didn't get there, there was a good chance the other team was getting a nice chunk of yardage. The running game averaged under 100 yards (95.2) as a team last season and that part of the offense really has to improve. The Lions are banking on Kevin Smith and then Jahvid Best (injury) and Mikel LeShoure (suspension) when they both return to action. Matt Stafford also lacks weapons other than Calvin Johnson. He has plenty of average ones in Nate Burleson, Titus Young, and Brandon Pettigrew, but he needs someone closer to Johnson's star status so that Johnson will receive less attention. Even with these problems the Lions could have a good year considering they have the 11th easiest schedule in the league. I picked them to go 9-7 because of their lack of enough offensive weapons. If you take away Johnson from the offense, then the offense becomes average and the team will lose at least a few more games. It used to be every great quarterback needs a great receiver, but nowadays every great quarterback has multiple good receivers. Must watch games include: Week 2 at San Francisco; Week 6 at Philadelphia; Week 7 at Chicago; Week 11 v. Green Bay; Week 12 v. Houston; Week 14 at Green Bay; Week 16 v. Atlanta; and Week 17 v. Chicago.
Before I go into the playoffs, I would like to remind everyone that all of my picks are opinion, not fact. I kept my biases out as well. I chose my picks based off schedule and team improvement over the previous year. The fact of that matter is that games against even opponents could literally go either way and injuries could derail any team. I just tried to make the most logical picks and then tried to defend them in my little blurb about each team. With that being said, let's move on to the playoffs.
My predictions for the NFC side of the playoffs are: New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, San Francisco 49ers, and Atlanta Falcons. The Giants will win what could be a very tight East. With their elite pass rush holding opposing quarterbacks in check, I have them easily winning East though. The Packers also will be in a tight division, the North, and them winning the division could come down to the final weeks but Aaron Rodgers will do it. The Bears will finish second in the North but still make it to the playoffs as the first Wild Card team thanks to a dynamic offense and tough defense. The Saints will hold off the Falcons in the end to win the South because Drew Brees is just plain better than Matt Ryan. However, the Falcons will claim the second Wild Card spot thanks to their balanced offense of Ryan, Michael Turner, Julio Jones, and Roddy White. The 49ers will easily win the West thanks to everyone else in the division being in sort of a rebuilding mode.
This concludes my breakdown for the NFC. I hope you enjoyed reading and are not fuming over these picks (remember they are just opinion). Tomorrow I will post my playoff predictions sometime before kickoff of the Cowboys/Giants game. Til then, have a great night everybody.
References
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/56896/2012-nfl-strength-of-schedule
http://espn.go.com/nfl/schedulegrid/_/year/2012
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