Welcome to Part 1 of the NFC breakdown. Here is where I predict who will be at the bottom of the NFC standings come the end of December. Remember that the NFC has the tougher schedule this year with opponents combining to go 2056-2040. There are also a lot of teams trying to rebuild themselves, so don't be shocked when multiple teams have pitiful records. That's what happens when you mix a tough schedule with a rebuilding year. Now without further adieu, the lovable losers of the NFC. The order will be from teams closest resembling a rebuilding year to teams closest resembling a playoff team.
1. St. Louis Rams 2-14 (2011: 2-14)
Last season the Rams got the injury bug with both Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson being dinged up throughout parts of the season. The defense was a mix of good and bad. They were amazing at stopping the pass while awful at stopping the run. But failing to stop the run isn't all that bad since the NFL is now a passing league. Therefore only a small improvement in stopping the run will do wonders for a defense that can already stop the pass. The Rams were loaded with draft picks and they spread them equally on each side of the ball (they literally alternated defense to offense their first six selections, all of which were in rounds 1-4). Top defensive pick was defensive tack Michael Brockers, taken in the first, while Brian Quick, a wide receiver, was their top offensive pick, taken with the first pick of the second round. The Rams are a good young team, but they got stuck with second hardest schedule in the NFC and fourth overall. There two wins come in division at home against Seattle and Arizona. Neither team is much better than St. Louis, if at all, and so the Rams should be able to defend home field against those two teams. Must watch games include: Week 2 v. Washington; Week 4 v. Seattle; Week 5 v. Arizona; Week 6 at Miami; Week 11 v. the Jets; Week 12 at Arizona; Week 16 at Tampa Bay; and Week 17 at Seattle.
2. Washington Redskins 2-14 (2011: 5-11)
The Redskins finally have a quarterback they are confident in. I don't how long it's been since that was said, but I'm betting it's been awhile. The problem with the Skins is that they decided to try and get Robert Griffin help through free agency and left the draft for things like adding depth at the line and drafting another quarterback. This tactic is fine, especially when you're able to sign someone with breakout potential like Pierre Garcon, but I still would have tried to draft more weapons for Griffin and waited to the waiver wire to get help at the line. Garcon, Santana Moss, and Fred Davis are all decent targets though. What the Redskins need is a reliable running back, barely averaging 100 yards as a team last season. But I have a sneaky suspicion that the Redskins hope Griffin takes the running game into his own hands if needed. Still besides shoring up the quarterback position, Washington didn't get that much better since they were last on the field. This is why I predict them to go 2-14 even with the third easiest schedule in the NFC and seventh overall. They still need pieces, and they just happen to be in the NFC East where they have to face the Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys each twice. There two wins will come in St. Louis and Cleveland this season. The Skins will beat the Rams and Browns because they need less pieces than those two teams, which should make them better (in theory). Must watch games include: Week 2 at St. Louis; Week 4 at Tampa Bay; Week 6 v. Minnesota; Week 9 v. Carolina; and Week 15 v. Cleveland.
3. Arizona Cardinals 3-12 (2011: 8-8)
Kevin Kolb has officially returned to backup status and it'll now be the John Skelton show in Glendale. I'm not sure if that's good or bad, but I do know one Larry Fitzgerald is not happy. It's a mystery how Arizona ended up 8-8 at the end of the season as nothing they did was very good either offensively or defensively. The Cards had improving the offense on their minds when they used their first pick on receiver Michael Floyd, although he seems to be buried in the middle of the depth chart rather than starting. The team seems to be identical to last year's squad, except for the addition of William Gay as a starting corner and the draftees. It's hard to improve a team when it's stagnant. It'll also be hard for the team to win when it has the fourth hardest schedule in the NFC and seventh overall. My prediction of 3-12 is a reflection of the difficulty of their schedule. They will pull out wins v. Seattle, v. Miami, and v. St. Louis. All three of these teams are very beatable and the Cards are playing them at home, and tie always goes to the home team. Must watch games include: Week 1 v. Seattle; Week 4 v. Miami; Week 5 at St. Louis; Week 12 v. St. Louis; Week 13 at the Jets; and Week 14 at Seattle.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-12 (2011: 4-12)
The Bucs just weren't very good last season. Something happened to Josh Freeman is second year as full-time starter as he threw nearly four times as many picks in 2011 as he did in 2010. Maybe having average receivers finally caught up to him. He won't have that problem this year as the receiving corps is in tact except for a major upgrade in Vincent Jackson. They also swapped Kellen Winslow with Dallas Clark at the tight end position, which was a good move since Clark is a veteran that doesn't need the ball as much as Winslow. A full training camp and preseason to gel with all his targets will definitely help him out as well. Tampa Bay used the draft to improve their defense and running game. They selected safety Mark Barron and running back Doug Martin in the first round, and linebacker Lavonte David in the second. The Bucs definitely improved from the last year. They're strength of schedule is very misleading at second easiest in the NFC and sixth overall as they have a brutal first four weeks that will most likely leave them limping into their bye week. Easy teams may be in their schedule but they do not have any easy stretches. This is the reasoning for me picking them to go 4-12. Those four wins will come v. Washington, in Minnesota, in Oakland, and v. St. Louis. The first three mentioned could go either way but Tampa's new additions outweigh Washington's and Minnesota's. As for St. Louis, Tampa Bay is just the better team. Must watch games include: Week 1 v. Carolina; Week 4 v. Washington; Week 6 v. Kansas City; Week 8 at Minnesota; Week 9 at Oakland; Week 10 v. San Diego; and Week 11 v. Carolina.
5. Seattle Seahawks 4-12 (2011: 7-9)
In 2010 7-9 not only the Hawks a playoff spot but it also led them to their unforgettable upset victory over the Saints. However things were back to normal in 2011 and 7-9 meant no playoffs. Seattle clearly wanted to upgrade the quarterback position when they signed free agent Matt Flynn and drafted Russell Wilson in the third round. Wilson beat out Flynn in preseason after it was widely thought that Seattle signed Flynn to start. They used to two picks before Wilson to upgrade the linebacker spot with their selections of Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner. The Seahawk D was pretty good last year and so adding what are presumabley to pass rushers can only help the matter. What was concerning about last year's Hawks was their anemic offense, which ranked in the bottom half in both passing and rushing. Seattle is hoping Marshawn Lynch will build off his impressive 2011 season and that the receivers improve from last season. However, the question marks at quarterback and wideout will keep the Hawks from winning many games. I have them winning four, and the come v. the Jets, in Miami, v. Arizona, and v, the Rams. I have no real reason to why they'll beat the Jets, it's just a gut feeling, but the latter three teams all aren't very good and I think either Russell Wilson or Matt Flynn can handle them. Must watch games include: Week 1 at Arizona; Week 4 at St Louis; Week 5 at Carolina; Week 9 v. Minnesota; Week 10 v, the Jets; Week 12 at Miami; Week 14 v. Arizona; Week 15 at Buffalo; and Week 17 v. St. Louis
6. Carolina Panthers 5-11 (2011: 6-10)
The Panthers have a very good quarterback in Cam Newton, a very good receiver in Steve Smith, a good tight end in Greg Olsen, and three good backs in Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, and Mike Tolbert. The problem is that's all they got. Two of three running backs, Stewart and Williams, are injury risks, as well. Cam Newton cannot do it all, he needs people around him, and the Panthers failed to do that this offseason besides creating even more of a logjam at running back by signing Tolbert. They did trade for Louis Murphy, but he is an unproven receiver with not much work in his short career. Newton likes to do two things with the ball: throw it deep and tuck and ruck. That is why he connects with Steve Smith so well. The Panthers need more Steve Smiths, preferably younger and taller ones. They also need more play-makers on defense that was pretty bad last season, which is why they used the ninth overall pick on Luke Kuechly and their fourth round pick on d-lineman Frank Alexander. They also signed Haruki Nakamura to be their starting safety. I have them losing one more game than last season because they did not do enough to improve and their schedule is not very inviting (sixth hardest in the NFC and ninth overall). Their five wins will come at Tampa Bay, v. Seattle, at Washington, v. Tampa Bay, and v. Oakland. I feel that Tampa, Seattle, and Washington are inferior teams compared to the Panthers, and as for Oakland it should be a good game and I feel Cam will outplay Carson Palmer. Must watch games include: Week 1 at Tampa Bay; Week 5 v. Seattle; Week 9 at Washington; Week 11 v. Tampa Bay; Week 13 at Kansas City; and Week 16 v. Oakland.
7. Minnesota Vikings 6-10 (2011: 3-13)
With the old guy quarterback experiment finally over, Christian Ponder gets the nod to start for the whole year. Ponder played OK last season and he should have only gotten better with a regular offseason under his belt. The Vikings also gave Ponder another extremely athletic receiver to go alongside Percy Harvin in Jerome Simpson although he'll be sitting out the first few games because of bad behavior. Minnesota also signed touchdown-grabbing machine John Carlsson to pair with Kyle Rudolph at tight end. They upgraded the line by drafting Matt Kalil fourth overall and added depth to the safety spot by taking Harrison Smith at the end of the first round. All these are good signs for the Vikings who will be welcoming Adrian Peterson back from injury as well. What's not a good sign for the Vikings is that they have the fifth hardest schedule in the NFC and eight overall. However. I still have them winning three more games than last season. I think they will win more because Christian Ponder will improve and the additions of Simpson and Carlsson will make the offense better. Must watch games include: Week 1 v. Jacksonville; Week 2 at Indianapolis; Week 5 v. Tennessee; Week 6 at Washington; Week 7 v. Arizona; Week 8 v. Tampa Bay; Week 9 at Seattle; and Week 15 at St. Louis.
8. Dallas Cowboys 7-9 (2011: 8-8)
The Dallas Cowboys are a pretty good football team. They have two star players on offense in Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. They have four more good offensive players in receiver Miles Austin, tight end Jason Witten, and running backs DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones. Their defense squashes the run. But what the Cowboys are great at on one side of the ball, they're terrible at on the other side. They can throw with the best of them, but they can't defend the pass to save their lives. Similarly they can stop the run with ease, yet they're only average at running the ball. Murray becoming the starter should help the running game. The secondary received a shot in the arm when they signed cornerback Brandon Carr and drafted another in Morris Claiborne sixth overall. The Cowboys have done pretty well in trying to fill their holes, but their schedule is fairly tough (eight hardest in the NFC, and 12 overall) and they place the Giants and Eagles twice. This will result in a 7-9 final record. But a 7-9 record to start means that they are somewhat underdogs and that they only need a few wins to turn the tables and reach the playoffs. Must watch games include: Week 1 at the Giants; Week 4 v. Chicago; Week 6 at Baltimore; Week 7 at Carolina; Week 8 v. Giants; Week 9 at Atlanta; Week 10 at Philadelphia; Week 13 v. Philadelphia; Week 14 at Cincinnati; Week 15 v. Pittsburgh; and Week 16 v. New Orleans.
The only team on this list that resembles a playoff team is the Dallas Cowboys. All they need to do is pull off some wins against some of the better teams on their schedule and they may be looking at a Wild Card spot. Switching gears a little bit, I forgot to tell you my definition of a must watch game in my earlier article, and I'd like to do so now. To me, a must watch game is a competitive game between two games that will most likely end close and not in a blowout. This means that bad teams playing good teams, are not 'must watch' games to me. If I can look at the schedule and think, "Oh this teams is gonna win easily," then that is not a 'must watch' game. So what I'm trying to say is that an equal match up is the only must-see match up out there. Well, that's all I got left for ya. Come back tomorrow to for part 2 of both the AFC and NFC breakdowns. I guarantee you won't regret it.
References
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/56896/2012-nfl-strength-of-schedule
http://espn.go.com/nfl/schedulegrid/_/year/2012
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