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| Gary Bettman (left) and Donald Fehr (right) |
If you look back to summer, you'd never know that the NHL is dangerously close to another lockout after six years of labor peace. I say this because over the course of the summer massive trades have happened, like Rick Nash to the Rangers, and mega deals were signed, like Suter and Parise's 13-year deals with Minnesota. The NHL offseason is moving as if it's a normal offseason, but the fact of the matter is that the the owners and players are nowhere's near a deal. Last week the two sides talked for three days, but as of the last day of August discussions stopped.
The roots of the impasse are the same as they were during the NFL and NBA lockouts. The owners want the players to receive a significantly lower share of hockey-related income. During the last collective bargaining cycle, the players got 57% of the pot. Now the owners want to cut that by 11%, and of course the players want no part of that. The players then threw out the idea of a three year plan that limits salary growth with a fourth option year that allows players to recoup some of the share. I call it an idea instead of a proposal because there was no way the owners would even discuss it. Commission Gary Bettman also refused to call it a proposal, calling it a response. As of right now the owners don't even see a point in discussing anything that doesn't involve the players taking a pay cut. This comes straight from the head of the players' association, Donald Fehr. The two sides have until September 15, last day of current contract, to strike a deal. To no surprise to anyone, if no deal is reached then the owners will lockout the players.
My question is why did the owners accept the previous deal with the players earning 14% more than them? Couldn't they foresee a dispute over that when the deal was going to expire? The answer of course is that the 57% the players received was less than they received before the 2004 lockout that wiped out the entire 04-05 season. The problem now is that the owners are asking the players to take too much of a pay cut this time around. They should have taken notes during the NFL and NBA lockouts and offered an even split of the revenue. If the NHL had done this, the players could have countered with a 54%. The owners would have stayed at 50, and so the players would go down to 52%. At that point the owners would have begrudgingly accepted because they know all the better players in the league could have gone to Europe to play. A 5% decrease for the players is still a victory for the owners in the long run, too. See, that's how simple these negotiations could have been, but the owners are greedy and want to squeeze the most they can get out of the players.
Considering that the two sides are not talking and there are only 11 days left til the deadline, I'm thinking the NHL will be going into another lockout. Right now the two sides can't even agree on who ended Friday's talks. Fehr says that the owners decided it was time for a recess, and then Bettman responded by calling the claim an "unfair and inaccurate characterization." Another reason why they will be going into a lockout is that the players don't believe that September 15 is the deadline. They believe that the true deadline is nearly a month later, October 11, which is the start of the regular season. Bettman, though, insists that the deadline is September 15. So they can't agree on who ended their last discussions or on the deadline date, but we are hoping they strike a deal in less than two weeks? At this point we should just be hoping that there is some type of season at all.
When the eventual lockout does end, I predict that the two sides will agree on an even split in revenue. It is the most logical conclusion to this saga. The owners want the players to take a pay cut, which there is no way around, and so the players will agree but their bottom number will be 50 because there's no way they will allow the owners to receive more than them. The owners are happy because they are making more money and the players are (somewhat) happy because they got more than the owners wanted them to have. But before cooler heads prevail, prepare yourselves for Lockout III: NHL Edition, coming to a media outlet near you.
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