Football season is just two days away. This means its about time to breakdown the AFC and NFC. Both conferences will be split into two parts. Part 1 will consist of the bottom eight teams in the conference while Part 2 will consist of the top eight. The articles will include fun facts involving strength of schedule, info on each team. a prediction of the final standings, and must watch games. The AFC will be first. To kickoff this AFC breakdown, I would like to announce that the AFC has a slightly easier schedule than the NFC this season. The AFC's combined opponent win/loss record from last year is 16 games below .500 (2040-2056), meaning, of course, that the NFC's is the reverse. However, AFC teams faced two more quality opponents than the NFC (96-94), which are defined as teams with nine or more victories. Now, let's begin. The order will be from biggest pretenders to playoff sleepers.
1. Cleveland Browns 0-16 (2011: 4-12)
The Browns have improved since last year. Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson will most likely do better than Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis. Greg Little will probably get better at receiver and maybe Josh Gordon might be a pleasant surprise. There's a lot to like about the future of the team. The problem is they are saddled in most of the toughest divisions in the NFL and they probably won't get a win in the division. Another big problem is that it just so happens that this year Cleveland has second hardest schedule in the AFC and third overall. That does not bode well for a rookie quarterback and running back. Are they a lock to have a win-less season? No, but I am predicting it that way because the cards just didn't fall right for the Browns this year. Must watch games include: Week 7 in Indianapolis; and Week 15 v. Washington.
2. Miami Dolphins 1-15 (2011: 6-10)
A lot has changed over the past year for the Fins and yet ironically the team is basically the same. They have an average quarterback in Ryan Tannehill who is a rookie instead of having an average veteran in Chad Henne. They have still have average receivers like Davone Bess and Brian Hartline. They still have a slightly above average running back in Reggie Bush that's now one year older and still injury prone. The defense was not improved upon; in fact, the opposite happened. They traded they're best cornerback, Vontae Davis, and released veteran safety Yeremiah Bell. It's clear that Miami's intentions are to take their lumps this year and rebuild through next year's draft. Their schedule isn't bad though so you might see them throw games at various points during the season. Their lack of an attempt assemble a good football team is why I think they'll only win one game. That one game comes at home v. St. Louis. The game is Week 6 so by then Steven Jackson will be hobbled by some kind of injury and it'll be the Sam Bradford show, except Bradford doesn't have anyone good to throw to. Miami could very well lose this game too, but I think they could pull it out. Must watch game include: Week 3 v. Jets; Week 4 at Arizona; Week 6 v. St. Louis; Week 8 at East Rutherford against Jets; Week 9 at Indianapolis; Week 12 v. Seattle; and Week 15 v. Jacksonville.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars 2-14 (2011: 5-11)
Maurice Jones-Drew just returned from his holdout, and threw out to the media that he's open to being traded. Blaine Gabbert is again the starting quarterback. Justin Blackmon seems more likely to get another DUI than have a good year. But the defense is probably going to be top 10. These are your 2012-13 Jacksonville Jaguars everyone. A team that could be near the top of the entire league if they just had a decent passing game, and gave their star running back the raise he deserves. Instead they are stuck with Gabbert and an unhappy Jones-Drew who will probably get injured after sitting out all of training camp and the preseason. Yes, I'm sure he was working out on his own, but that's not quite the same now is it? This team will ride Jones-Drew and the defense to their physical limits. That isn't going to get them many victories though. Every team will stack the line and force Gabbert to beat them through the air. This is why I'm predicting only two wins out of the Jags this year because Jones-Drew can't possibly do it again two straight years. Those two lone victories occur v. Indianapolis and in Miami. Jones-Drew will probably be able to tear up the Colts defense while the Jags d will embarrass Miami's weak offense. Must watch games include: Week 1 at Minneapolis; Week 3 at Indianapolis; Week 7 at Oakland; Week 10 v. Indianapolis; Week 14 v. Jets; and Week 15 at Miami.
4. Indianapolis Colts 3-13 (2011: 2-14)
Andrew Luck has arrived in Indy. The Colts got what they hope to be the next Peyton Manning. Luck has a some pretty good weapons with Colts including Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, and former teammate Coby Fleener. Donald Brown makes for an average running back, but the Colts haven't had an elite running back since the Edgerrin James days. The Colts did a great job drafting offensive talent using three straight picks behind Luck on Fleener, a tight end, and a receiver. Unfortunately, the Colts probably should have focuses more on defense after drafting Luck and Fleener considering they were horrible against the run and decent against the pass last season. Indianapolis only used 2 out of their 10 picks on defensive players, which is a real head-scratcher if you ask me. Luck will try his hardest to keep Indy in games but the defense will ultimately lose them. Luckily their schedule isn't that terrible (near the median in both AFC and average), which means they will be able to get a few wins. I have those wins coming v. Jacksonville, v. Cleveland, and v. Miami. The Colts could lose all three of these games but they are arguably their three easiest games of the year and they are all home games. Must watch games include: Week 2 v. Minnesota; Week 3 v. Jacksonville; Week 6 at East Rutherford against the Jets; Week 7 v. Cleveland; and Week 9 v. Miami.
5. Oakland Raiders 4-12 (2011: 8-8)
The Raiders somehow narrowly missed the playoffs last season even with the injury to Darren McFadden and the inconsistency of Carson Palmer and his young receivers. It'll be Palmer's first full season in Oakland and his offense could be quite good. But McFadden isn't the most durable of running backs and it's still not known what his receivers will give him. There's a chance they will be great or a chance they'll be average or below average; it truly is hit or miss. Another major problem in Oakland is their awful defense that ranked 27th last season. They added second round linebacker Miles Burris to the equation but there's a big question mark next to linebacker Rolando McClain's name and his likely replacement Aaron Curry might be out til Week 3. Their schedule isn't too easy or hard (literally smack in the middle for both AFC and overall), but this team has too many what-ifs to say they'll win a lot of games, which is why I went with a 4-12 prediction. The games I have them winning are: v. San Diego; at Miami; v. Jacksonville; and v. Cleveland. I have them beating San Diego because it's their home opener and San Diego might be without some key guys; it's a perfect brew for an upset. Miami is a lost cause this season and I have just about everyone beating them. I think Oakland can beat the Jags at home because McFadden and Jones-Drew cancel each other out which means it'll be Palmer v. Gabbert, and Palmer is the easy choice in that one. Cleveland, much like Miami, is also a lost cause this season and I don't have them beating anyone (more on that later). Must watch games include: Week 1 v. San Diego; Week 7 v. Jacksonville; Week 8 at Kansas City; Week 12 at Cincinnati; Week 15 v. Kansas City; Week 16 at Charlotte; and Week 17 at San Diego.
6. San Diego Chargers 6-10 (2011: 8-8)
The Chargers have gracefully fallen out of favor in the AFC West ever since they parted ways with LaDainian Tomlinson. Don't get me wrong, they competed and were always in the hunt for the playoffs, but each year they fizzled towards the end. Unfortunately for them, this year is when the wheels fall off the wagon. Phil Rivers is no longer an elite quarterback. In recent years he has actually been error prone and, well, simply decent. Rivers fall probably has a lot to do with the lack of Tomlinson and Darren Sproles, Antonio Gates slowly breaking down, and lack of good receivers outside the now departed Vincent Jackson. They do have Ryan Mathews who has proved he run and catch when he's on the field, but staying on the field is somewhat of a problem for him. Second-year man Vincent Brown looks promising at receiver, but he got injured and will be out for nearly half the season. San Diego also added two receivers in Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal. Both can be game-changers but both are also somewhat inconsistent. If all this isn't enough, the Chargers have the fourth hardest schedule in the AFC, and fifth overall. If I were in the front office in San Diego, I'd trade a down year for some good young talent in next year's draft. Must watch games include: Week 1 in Oakland; Week 3 v. Atlanta; Week 4 at Kansas City; Week 5 at New Orleans; Week 6 v. Denver; Week 9 v. Kansas City; Week 11 at Denver; Week 12 v. Baltimore; Week 14 at Pittsburgh; and Week 16 at East Rutherford against Jets.
7. New York Jets 8-8 (2011: 8-8)
Well it's Tebow Time in New York these days and no one knows yet if that bodes well for Mark Sanchez or not. If you go by the preseason and the lack of touchdowns, I'd say the answer is not well. Tony Sparano is the new OC for the Jets and he is the mastermind behind the wildcat, which was the main reason for acquiring Tebow. New York also added a few receivers including second round pick Stephen Hill and offseason acquisitions Chaz Schilens and Clyde Gates. The defense, which was pretty good to begin with, got some upgrades as well including first round defensive end Quinton Coples and free agent safeties LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell. Credit the Jets for trying to infuse the team with more talent, but, unfortunately, they didn't do enough. Even with the fifth easiest schedule in the AFC and 12th overall, I don't see the Jets winning more than eight games. They are in a tough division that just got tougher with the Bills getting better and they just don't have enough offensive firepower. The defense will keep them in plenty of games, but you still need to score in order to win. Must watch games include: Week 1 v. Buffalo; Week 4 v. San Francisco; Week 5 v. Houston; Week 7 at New England; Week 12 v. New England; Week 16 v. San Diego; and Week 17 at Buffalo.
8. Tennessee Titans 8-8 (2011: 9-7)
The Titans have elected to go young over old with Locker starting over Hasselbeck. That seems like a good move since Locker can make plays both in the air and with his feet. Tennessee also have Chris Johnson at running back and he's poised to have a big year after a sub-par 2011 season by his standards. The problem stems at receiver for the Titans though. Kenny Britt has had three knee surgeries since last being on the field and there's a huge question mark on how well he plays when he returns from a one-game suspension. Another question is whether Nate Washington can be the guy if Britt isn't. They did help their own cause by using their first round pick on receiver Kendall Wright, but he's not expected to start even with Britt barred from Week 1 play. Their defense is nothing special either. However, the Titans do have the fourth easiest schedule in the AFC and fifth overall, so there is room to surprise if the offense does click. Must watch games include: Week 1 v. New England; Week 2 at San Diego; Week 3 v. Detroit; Week 4 at Houston; Week 6 v. Pittsburgh; Week 7 at Buffalo; Week 9 v. Chicago; Week 13 v. Houston; Week 15 v. Jets; and Week 16 at Green Bay.
As you can see, I have picked the Titans and the Jets as my two playoff sleepers from the pretenders list. I chose these two teams because they both play in similar divisions. Both have a virtual lock for first while the rest of the division could go in any direction. Also when you look at the AFC, there is one Wild Card spot completely up for grabs with as many as five teams going for hunt. You will understand more when you read Part 2, which comes out sometime tomorrow evening. Next up is Part 1 of the NFC which will be posted later on tonight. Thanks for reading everybody.
References
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/56896/2012-nfl-strength-of-schedule
http://espn.go.com/nfl/schedulegrid/_/year/2012
Well it's Tebow Time in New York these days and no one knows yet if that bodes well for Mark Sanchez or not. If you go by the preseason and the lack of touchdowns, I'd say the answer is not well. Tony Sparano is the new OC for the Jets and he is the mastermind behind the wildcat, which was the main reason for acquiring Tebow. New York also added a few receivers including second round pick Stephen Hill and offseason acquisitions Chaz Schilens and Clyde Gates. The defense, which was pretty good to begin with, got some upgrades as well including first round defensive end Quinton Coples and free agent safeties LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell. Credit the Jets for trying to infuse the team with more talent, but, unfortunately, they didn't do enough. Even with the fifth easiest schedule in the AFC and 12th overall, I don't see the Jets winning more than eight games. They are in a tough division that just got tougher with the Bills getting better and they just don't have enough offensive firepower. The defense will keep them in plenty of games, but you still need to score in order to win. Must watch games include: Week 1 v. Buffalo; Week 4 v. San Francisco; Week 5 v. Houston; Week 7 at New England; Week 12 v. New England; Week 16 v. San Diego; and Week 17 at Buffalo.
8. Tennessee Titans 8-8 (2011: 9-7)
The Titans have elected to go young over old with Locker starting over Hasselbeck. That seems like a good move since Locker can make plays both in the air and with his feet. Tennessee also have Chris Johnson at running back and he's poised to have a big year after a sub-par 2011 season by his standards. The problem stems at receiver for the Titans though. Kenny Britt has had three knee surgeries since last being on the field and there's a huge question mark on how well he plays when he returns from a one-game suspension. Another question is whether Nate Washington can be the guy if Britt isn't. They did help their own cause by using their first round pick on receiver Kendall Wright, but he's not expected to start even with Britt barred from Week 1 play. Their defense is nothing special either. However, the Titans do have the fourth easiest schedule in the AFC and fifth overall, so there is room to surprise if the offense does click. Must watch games include: Week 1 v. New England; Week 2 at San Diego; Week 3 v. Detroit; Week 4 at Houston; Week 6 v. Pittsburgh; Week 7 at Buffalo; Week 9 v. Chicago; Week 13 v. Houston; Week 15 v. Jets; and Week 16 at Green Bay.
As you can see, I have picked the Titans and the Jets as my two playoff sleepers from the pretenders list. I chose these two teams because they both play in similar divisions. Both have a virtual lock for first while the rest of the division could go in any direction. Also when you look at the AFC, there is one Wild Card spot completely up for grabs with as many as five teams going for hunt. You will understand more when you read Part 2, which comes out sometime tomorrow evening. Next up is Part 1 of the NFC which will be posted later on tonight. Thanks for reading everybody.
References
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/56896/2012-nfl-strength-of-schedule
http://espn.go.com/nfl/schedulegrid/_/year/2012
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